Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Climatology expert at the National Research and Innovation Agency (
BRIN
) Erma Yulihastin mentioned Bibit
Tropical Cyclone
93S, which was detected to be active in the Indian Ocean south of Nusa Tenggara, has the potential to become a tropical cyclone in the future.
Erma even said that the storm resulting from Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S had the potential to become ‘
next Senyar
‘ which hit Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra.
“Beware of the next Senyar storm, which is expected to land in NTT in the period 1-10 January 2026,” said Erma in a tweet on X, Thursday (11/12).
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Erma’s forecast comes from subseasonal to seasonal high resolution predictions from KAMAJAYA-BRIN, a decision support system tool specifically designed to mitigate extreme weather in the next six months.
In the upload, Erma also included an infographic showing that this storm seed can grow quickly into a tropical cyclone that can land in the eastern region and has the potential to bring extreme rain, strong winds and high waves.
He said the peak risk of tropical cyclones occurring in early January 2026, or precisely at Dasarian I.
When contacted further, Erma said that the Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S was relatively smaller in size and had less potential to become a cyclone than the Tropical Cyclone Seed 91S which was in waters near Sumatra.
However, this system can still influence local weather conditions, especially in the East Nusa Tenggara region and its surroundings.
“This tropical storm 93S has the opportunity to land in the NTT region (Timor Leste/Kupang/surrounding areas),” said Erma when contacted
domclubIndonesia.com
.
According to him, based on the results of seasonal weather forecast models which show a strong convergence pattern in the waters around Indonesia.
Then, based on atmospheric analysis in December 2025 to January 2026, two areas were recorded as experiencing the formation of significant vortex patterns.
Western waters, including the Indian Ocean and the southern seas of Indonesia, show strong convergence at sea but do not have a direct impact on land.
On the other hand, eastern waters, especially the Flores Sea, the NTT region, Kupang and Timor Leste have a higher potential for storms that can develop into tropical storms or even dangerous cyclones.
“So the results of the discussion indicate that there is this potential, so we urge the regional government and related officials in NTT to make mitigation efforts from now on,” explained Erma.
Meanwhile, analysis by the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) shows that Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S is currently detected as active in southern Bali and NTB.
On Friday (12/12) at 19.00 WIB, the circulation center of the tropical cyclone spawn was around 12.0°S 115.8°E.
BMKG estimates that in the next 24 hours the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S will remain persistent, as indicated by the absence of an increase in maximum winds around the system.
Then, in the next 48 – 72 hours the intensity of the system is predicted to increase slowly with maximum wind speeds reaching 20 knots in the northern quadrant of the system with movement tending to be stationary.
“The potential for Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 – 72 hours is in the low probability category,” said BMKG in its analysis on Friday (12/12).
These tropical cyclone seeds themselves will have an indirect impact on extreme weather in the surrounding area.Moderate to heavy rain is expected in Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali and NTB.
Apart from that, strong winds have the potential to occur in East Java and Bali, and moderate waves of 1.25 – 2.5 meters have the potential to occur in the Indian Ocean south of Central Java to Sumba Island, the waters south of East Java to Sumba Island, the southern waters of the Bali – Lombok – Alas Strait.
(lom/sfr)
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