Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Phenomenon
La Niña
influence
extreme weather
in Indonesia in recent times.How long will the La Nina phenomenon last in Indonesia?
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the La Nina phenomenon on Indonesia’s climate will not last until 2026.
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La Nina is a natural phenomenon that causes excessive rainfall in an area.Different from El Nino which is characterized by high temperatures in the Pacific Ocean around the equator, La Nina is characterized by low temperatures.
Based on monitoring results of global ocean and atmospheric dynamics, BMKG said the weak La Nina currently affecting Indonesia is expected to end at the end of the first quarter of 2026.
“Both El Nino and La Nina climatologically generally always end at the end of the first quarter of the current year. For 2026, we also expect this condition (La Nina) to return to a neutral phase,” said BMKG Deputy Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan in a presentation on the 2026 Climate Outlook, online, Jakarta, Tuesday (23/12).
BMKG, in its Climate Outlook 2026, specifically revealed that a weak La Nina will still persist in Indonesia in the January-February-March period.Then, starting March-April-May, La Nina is predicted to move into a neutral phase.
Meanwhile, BMKG emphasized that El Nino, the opposite climate phenomenon to La Nina, will not stop in Indonesia, as happened in 2023-2024.As a result, national air temperatures in 2026 are predicted to be lower than 2024 and within the range that has often occurred in previous years.
“We predict that Indonesia’s average annual temperature in 2026 will be in the range of 25 to 29 degrees Celsius. Nationally, 2026 will not be as hot as 2024,” he explained.
In terms of rainfall, most areas of Indonesia are predicted to experience annual rainfall of 1,500 to 4,000 millimeters per year, with the nature of rain generally being in the normal category when compared with the climatology for the 1991-2020 period.
“Normal does not mean without risk. During the rainy season, heavy rain is normal. If it is met with a high level of vulnerability, the potential for floods and landslides must still be watched out for,” stressed BMKG.
BMKG reminded that even though the influence of La Nina is weakening, the potential for extreme weather remains, especially in the January-March 2026 period which coincides with the peak of the rainy season.
For this reason, BMKG is strengthening its impact-based early warning system (impact-based forecasting) so that weather information not only states the intensity of rain, but also the potential risks.
BMKG emphasized that the biggest challenge is not just the El Nino or La Nina phenomenon, but long-term climate change which is marked by an increasing trend in temperature and air humidity.
“What we need to anticipate is the cumulative effect of rising temperature and humidity in the long term, as well as its impact on health, ecosystems and regional resilience,” he concluded.
(wpj/dmi)
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