Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (
BMKG
) revealed that a number of regions in Indonesia have the potential to experience
rainfall
high to very high in 2026.
According to BMKG, in general, national climate conditions are predicted to be in the normal category.Areas with mountainous topography and those that face directly to the Indian Ocean are the areas that need the most attention.
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“Most of Indonesia’s territory in 2026 is predicted to experience annual rainfall of between 1,500 to 4,000 millimeters per year. However, there are certain areas that have the potential to experience very high rainfall,” said BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan in a presentation on the 2026 Climate Outlook, online, Jakarta (23/12).
BMKG said that areas with annual rainfall above 4,000 millimeters include West Java, central Central Java, most of Kalimantan, central Sulawesi, Papua, and the west coast of Sumatra which directly faces the Indian Ocean.
“Climatologically, the west coast region of Sumatra is very much influenced by the heat of the Indian Ocean and the effects of the Bukit Barisan Mountains, so the rainfall is relatively high,” he explained.
From a monthly perspective, BMKG noted that the potential for heavy rain has been visible since the beginning of the year.In January 2026, medium to high rainfall is predicted to occur in Banten, West Java, Central Java, Bali, East Nusa Tenggara and South Sulawesi.
While February is generally predicted to be low to high, very high rainfall is possible in Central Java and South Sulawesi.March to April, it is predicted that there is a medium to high chance of occurring in Central Java and Central Papua.
“The period January to March 2026 is still influenced by weak La Nina and coincides with the rainy season, so the potential for floods and landslides must still be anticipated,” stressed BMKG.
Entering the middle of May and June, BMKG estimates that parts of southern Indonesia will begin to transition to the dry season, predicted in the low to medium category.
From July to September, very low rainfall has the potential to occur in East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara, which needs to be anticipated in terms of water availability.
Towards the end of the year, October to December 2026, BMKG predicts rain will increase again in western Indonesia.Very high rainfall is predicted in Aceh.
“In November to December 2026, high rainfall is likely to occur in Aceh, West Sumatra, Bengkulu, Banten, West Java, Central Java and South Sulawesi,” said Ardhasena.
BMKG reminded that even though the general nature of rain is normal, the risk of disaster still depends on the level of vulnerability of the area.
Therefore, local governments are asked to strengthen mitigation, especially in areas prone to floods and landslides.
(wpj/nat/dmi)
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