Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (
BMKG
) detect potential extreme weather that is at risk of triggering
disaster
follow-up in the regions of Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra.
BMKG Deputy Meteorologist Guswanto said that currently a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) has been detected in the Indian Ocean region west of Sumatra.
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“We need to be careful, especially for the Mandailing Natal region, North Sumatra and the majority of West Sumatra,” said Guswanto, Thursday (27/11), as reported by
Between
.
The MCC is a large-scale, semi-circular, long-lived, organized system of thunderstorm clusters.The impacts of MCC include extreme rain, namely very high rainfall over a long duration to strong winds and hail.
Therefore, according to Guswanto, the potential for moderate to very heavy rain can still occur even though Tropical Cyclone Senyar, which previously triggered hydrometeorological disasters in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra, has weakened.
Tropical Cyclone Senyar is the Seed of Tropical Cyclone 95B which developed on November 21 2025 in the waters east of Aceh, precisely in the Malacca Strait.
As a result, in the last week the areas of Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra were hit by rain every day, triggering flash floods accompanied by landslides with significant damage in a number of districts and cities.
“Then when it entered mainland Aceh, the cyclone did not immediately disappear and had time to rotate from East Aceh to Aceh Tamiang. That is why the impact was more powerful because the system was on mainland Sumatra,” he said.
BMKG stressed even though Tropical Cyclone Senyar has weakened, the presence of the MCC could prolong the period of extreme weather affecting rainfall intensity and the potential for further hydrometeorological disasters.
This institution also appealed to local governments, emergency response teams and the public to increase awareness of the risk of floods, flash floods, landslides and strong winds, especially in areas that were previously badly affected.
According to BMKG, there are factors other than Tropical Cyclone Senyar that cause extreme rain in the area.One of them is the Equatorial Rossby wave which was observed to be active in the same area and contributed to increasing the intensity of the rainfall.
Apart from that, Tropical Cyclone Koto, which is currently forming in the Philippine Sea, is also having an indirect impact in the form of rain with moderate to heavy intensity and high waves (1.25 – 4 meters) in the waters north of Kalimantan, Sulawesi and North Maluku.
“BMKG predicts that a combination of global, regional and local scale atmospheric phenomena will still influence the weather in Indonesia for the next week,” said BMKG in its official statement.
On a global scale, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is currently recorded at −0.6, which indicates the potential for increased formation of rain clouds, especially in western Indonesia.
In addition, weak La Nina conditions, which are characterized by a Relative Nino 3.4 index of -0.42 and a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of +15.5, will increase the potential for rain in eastern Indonesia.
BMKG also revealed that the strengthening of the Asian Monsoon and the dominance of the westerly zonal wind component in Indonesian territory further increases the supply of water vapor from the Indian Ocean and triggers the formation of rain clouds in most parts of Indonesia.
Then, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to be in phase 6 (Western Pacific), but spatially this phenomenon is estimated to be active in parts of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, North Maluku and Papua.
The combination of MJO, Kelvin Waves, and Equatorial Rossby Waves in the same area and period is predicted to occur in the Malacca Strait region, the Indian Ocean west of Aceh, and the Indian Ocean south of the island of Java to East Nusa Tenggara.
“This phenomenon is predicted to support increased formation of rain clouds in these areas,” said BMKG.
(dmi/dmi)
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