Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (
BMKG
) reveals the possibility of the emergence of a number of
tropical cyclone
next year.Read the explanation.
BMKG Deputy for Meteorology Guswanto explained that tropical cyclones cannot be predicted in advance on a seasonal or annual basis.The reason is, tropical cyclones are formed on a very short time scale.
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“Tropical cyclones are short-term weather phenomena. They cannot be predicted seasonally or annually, usually they can only be detected in a matter of days to less than 10 days before they form,” said Guswanto in his presentation on Climate Outlook 2026, online, Jakarta (23/12).
BMKG explained that there is an annual periodization pattern for the formation of tropical cyclones that needs attention.
In the Southern Hemisphere, tropical cyclones generally develop in the period November to April, while in the Northern Hemisphere they occur from June to December, with an overlap period in November-December.
“The period January to April 2026 in the southern hemisphere is still the period of growth of the pre-tropical system, so the potential for cyclones to impact Indonesia remains,” he explained.
BMKG, in its Climate Outlook 2026, emphasized that although the number and strength of tropical cyclones cannot be confirmed, experience in previous years shows that more than one cyclone can form and have an indirect impact on Indonesia.
“Learning from previous experiences such as Cyclones Seroja and Cempaka, the impact of cyclones can be felt even though the center is not in Indonesian territory,” said BMKG.
The impacts most often felt in Indonesia due to tropical cyclones include increased rainfall, strong winds and high waves, especially in the southern region of Indonesia and the waters of the Indian Ocean, including around the Sunda Strait and waters south of Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara.
“The magnitude of the impact really depends on the distance of the area to the center of the cyclone and the intensity of the cyclone. The closer, the greater the influence,” he continued.
BMKG urges the public, local governments and stakeholders in the shipping, aviation and disaster sectors to continue to monitor BMKG early warnings, especially during cyclone-prone periods.
“We will update information daily and even hourly when a weather system has the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone,” he said.
Tropical cyclones are becoming more frequent
Although in general tropical cyclones rarely pass through, the weather in Indonesia is also influenced by tropical cyclone conditions.Tropical cyclones that are close to Indonesian territory have indirect impacts in the form of bad weather, including extreme rain, increased surface wind speed and high waves.
This is because tropical cyclones trigger synoptic scale factors in the surrounding area which can form convergent areas and induce increased wind speeds on land and at sea.
BMKG Director of Public Meteorology Andri Ramdhani also revealed that currently Indonesia is not completely safe from the dangers of tropical cyclones.
“As Indonesian waters continue to warm which has given rise to low pressure which triggers the emergence of cyclone seeds, cyclones or low pressure patterns, of course we have to be aware that this can no longer happen, meaning that Indonesia will be safe from cyclone trajectories,” said Andri.
(wpj/dmi)
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