Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S
was detected to be active in the Indian Ocean south of Nusa Tenggara, and has the potential to turn into a tropical cyclone in the near future.
This was revealed by climatology expert from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) Erma Yulihastin.He even said that the storm resulting from Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S had the potential to become the ‘next Senyar’ that hit Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra.
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“Be aware of the next Senyar storm, which is expected to land in NTT in the period 1-10 January 2026,” said Erma in a tweet on X, Thursday (11/12).
Erma said this came from subseasonal to seasonal high resolution predictions from KAMAJAYA-BRIN, a decision support system tool specifically designed to mitigate extreme weather in the next six months.
In her upload, Erma also included an infographic showing that this storm seed can grow quickly into a tropical cyclone that can land in the eastern region and has the potential to bring extreme rain, strong winds and high waves.
The peak risk from this storm seed is estimated to occur from 11 to 20 December 2025, and could continue until early January 2026 or coincide with the Christmas and New Year holidays.
When contacted further, Erma said that the Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S was relatively smaller in size and had less potential to become a cyclone than the Tropical Cyclone Seed 91S which was in waters near Sumatra.
However, this system can still influence local weather conditions, especially in the East Nusa Tenggara region and its surroundings.
“This tropical storm 93S has the opportunity to land in the NTT region (Timor Leste/Kupang/surrounding areas),” said Erma when contacted
domclubIndonesia.com
.
According to him, based on the results of seasonal weather forecast models which show a strong convergence pattern in the waters around Indonesia.
Based on atmospheric analysis from December 2025 to January 2026, two areas were recorded as experiencing the formation of significant vortex patterns.
Western waters, including the Indian Ocean and the southern seas of Indonesia, show strong convergence at sea but do not have a direct impact on land.
On the other hand, eastern waters, especially the Flores Sea, the NTT region, Kupang and Timor Leste have a higher potential for storms that can develop into tropical storms or even dangerous cyclones.
“So the results of the discussion indicate that there is this potential, so we urge the regional government and related officials in NTT to make mitigation efforts from now on,” said Erma.
[Gambas:Twitter]
BMKG predictions
Meanwhile, analysis by the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) shows that Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S is currently detected as active in southern NTB.
Even though this system is predicted to move away from Indonesian territory, BMKG warns of potential indirect impacts in the form of potential rain with moderate to heavy intensity in several areas in the next few days.
Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani said the indirect impact of 93S resulted in several areas, such as Bali, NTB and NTT potentially experiencing moderate to heavy rain.Apart from that, high waves in the medium category (1.25 meters-2.5 meters) have the potential to occur in the Indian Ocean south of East Java to NTT, waters south of East Java, and the southern part of the Bali-Lombok-Alas Strait.
“We must remain alert to the potential for indirect impacts in the form of moderate to heavy rain and high waves in the waters,” said Faisal in his official statement.
Referring to the results of BMKG analysis, the maximum wind speed around the system currently reaches 15 knots or 28 km/hour with a minimum pressure of 1009 hPa.According to BMKG, the convective clouds around 93S are not yet well organized, so the process of strengthening the system is predicted to be slow in the next 24 hours.
BMKG Deputy for Meteorology Guswanto explained that in the next 24 hours, the intensity of 93S is likely to be persistent with a slow movement southwest away from Indonesian territory.
Meanwhile, in the next 48 to 72 hours, this system is predicted to start increasing its intensity gradually as circulation patterns improve with consistent movement away from Indonesian territory.
“Based on our analysis, this system is moving slowly away from Indonesian territory and is not predicted to have a direct impact on land,” said Guswanto.
Previously, 93S began to form on December 11 2025 with a circulation center around 12.0°S – 117.0°E and entered the Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Area of Monitoring (AoM).
(wpj/dmi)
[Gambas:domclub Video]
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