Can extreme weather decrease in 2026?This is the BMKG explanation

December 24, 2025
11:23 AM

Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (
BMKG
) mentions potential
extreme weather
in Indonesia in 2026 it will not automatically decrease, even though in general climate conditions are predicted to be in the normal category.
BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said the risk of disasters and extreme weather is still determined by the intersection of weather intensity and the level of regional vulnerability.
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“Extreme weather is not only about rain, but also about vulnerability. Even though the 2026 climate is generally normal, extreme impacts can still occur if met with high vulnerability,” said Ardhasena in a presentation on the 2026 Climate Outlook, online, Jakarta (23/12).
He explained that the term ‘normal’ in climate forecasts means that weather conditions are still within the historical climatological range, especially for the 1991-2020 period, and does not mean free from heavy rain, floods or landslides.During the rainy season, high rainfall is a common condition.
“Normal means rain according to the monthly characteristics. From January to March, heavy rain is actually normal, so you still need to be vigilant,” explained BMKG.
BMKG highlights two extremes that need to be anticipated in 2026, namely extreme wet and extreme dry.At the beginning of the year, which is still influenced by weak La Nina, the potential for heavy rain and hydrometeorological events such as floods and landslides is still quite significant.
Meanwhile, during the dry season, the risk of drought and land fires also remains.
“The impact of the dry season is often longer than the rainy season. Therefore, as much water as possible needs to be stored during the 2026 rainy season to anticipate a dry period,” he said.
BMKG emphasized that long-term climate change remains the main factor in increasing the risk of extreme weather, even though El Nino or La Nina are not active.
“What you need to be careful of is the trend of increasing temperature and humidity that occurs continuously. This combination can increase the impact of extreme weather on humans and the environment,” he said.
To reduce risk, BMKG is now strengthening its impact-based early warning system (impact-based forecasting) which not only conveys rain intensity, but also potential risks in affected areas.
“In the future, warnings will no longer just be ‘heavy rain’, but ‘heavy rain with the potential for flooding or landslides in certain locations’,” said Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani.
BMKG urges local governments and the public not to be careless even though 2026 is projected to be normal, and to continue to utilize daily and monthly weather information as a basis for disaster mitigation and preparedness.
(wpj/dmi)
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