Experts predict Earth’s temperature will increase by more than 1.4 degrees next year

December 19, 2025
9:23 AM

Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Scientists predict
Earth’s temperature
will increase by more than 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels next year.This is the impact of the continued use of fossil fuels which makes temperatures hotter and triggers
extreme weather
.
The UK Meteorological Service predicts 2026 will be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C hotter than the average for the 1850-1900 period.The agency also predicts temperatures in 2026 will be one of the hottest years since 1850.
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The carbon covering the Earth due to the burning of fossil fuels has exacerbated extreme weather and increased critical risks that could cause disasters.
“The last three years have likely exceeded 1.4°C, and we estimate that 2026 will be the fourth consecutive year that exceeds this limit,” said Adam Scaife, a climate scientist at the Met Office, reported
The Guardian
, Thursday (18/11).
“Prior to this spike, global temperatures had never previously exceeded 1.3°C,” he added.
World leaders promised to limit global warming to 1.5°C in the Paris Agreement agreed 10 years ago.Because this target is measured based on a 30-year average, achieving it is still physically possible, even if certain months and years exceed the threshold.
“2024 recorded the first temporary exceedance of 1.5°C, and our forecast for 2026 suggests this may happen again,” said Nick Dunstone, climate scientist at the Met Office.
“This highlights how quickly we are now approaching the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target,” he said.
Previously, European Union scientists said 2025 was almost certain to be the second or third hottest year on record.This confirms projections from the World Meteorological Organization last November.
According to European climate change service Copernicus, average global temperatures from January to November this year rose 1.48°C higher than pre-industrial levels.
The study found temperature anomalies identical to those recorded in 2023, the second warmest year on record.Last year, the Met Office predicted 2025 would see temperatures 1.29°C to 1.53°C higher than pre-industrial levels.
Natural variations, including El Niño warming conditions, increased global temperatures in 2023 and 2024, but were replaced by weak La Niña cooling conditions in 2025. These fluctuations occurred amid increased greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, cars, and boilers, as well as damage to nature that can absorb carbon from the air.
Carbon dioxide levels clogging the atmosphere soared to unprecedented levels last year, according to a UN report in October.
In addition to the relentless burning of fossil fuels and the impact of widespread forest fires, scientists worry that Earth’s natural “carbon sinks” may be starting to fail.
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