Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts
rainfall
high will fall on a number of regions in Indonesia.
BMKG
warning disaster-prone areas to be aware of the potential for extreme weather.
According to BMKG, atmospheric dynamics in the next few days shows that Equatorial Rossby Waves and Kelvin Waves are predicted to be active and affect the atmosphere in several regions of Indonesia.These two tropical atmospheric waves can increase the convergence area and strengthen the process of lifting air masses, thus triggering the formation and growth of convective clouds that produce heavy rain.
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“Areas that are in the path of the wave’s influence include southern Sumatra, central and southern Kalimantan, western Java, Sulawesi, Maluku, North Maluku, and Papua,” said BMKG in its Weekly Weather Outlook for the period 2-8 December 2025.
The combination of relatively high air humidity conditions, surface heating during the day, and the influence of tropical atmospheric waves contribute to the increased potential for moderate to heavy intensity rain in these areas.
According to BMKG, rain can also be accompanied by lightning and strong winds.Therefore, even though the heavy rain in the last few days has been local and the timing of its occurrence varies, people living in areas prone to floods, landslides or around river banks are advised to remain alert to the possible impacts of heavy rain.
The role of La Niña
BMKG predicts that a combination of global, regional and local atmospheric phenomena will still influence the weather in Indonesia for the next week.One factor is the La Nina phenomenon which can increase rainfall.
According to BMKG on a global scale, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is currently recorded at −0.6, which indicates the potential for increased formation of rain clouds, especially in western Indonesia.Apart from that, weak La Nina conditions, which are indicated by a Nino 3.4 index value of -0.42 and a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of +13.7, will increase the potential for rain in eastern Indonesia.
The significant strengthening of the Asian Monsoon and the dominance of the westerly zonal wind component in Indonesia also further increases the supply of water vapor from the Indian Ocean and triggers the formation of rain clouds in most parts of Indonesia.
Weather outlook for the week
BMKG said the weather in Indonesia for the next week will generally be dominated by light rain to extreme rain.However, a number of areas need to be wary of increasing rainfall with moderate intensity.
Apart from that, heavy rain which can be accompanied by lightning and strong winds can occur, with an early warning level category.The following is a list of areas that have the potential to receive heavy to very heavy rain in the next week:
December 2-4 2025
Aceh
North Sumatra
South Sumatra
Bangka Belitung Islands
Banten
DKI Jakarta
West Java
Central Java
West Nusa Tenggara
East Nusa Tenggara
West Kalimantan
Central Kalimantan
East Kalimantan
North Sulawesi
West Sulawesi
North Maluku
Papua Mountains
Maluku
South Papua
December 5-8, 2025
Aceh
Bangka Belitung Islands
South Sumatra
East Java
Central Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
North Kalimantan
South Sulawesi
Central Sulawesi
North Sulawesi
West Sulawesi
North Maluku
Papua Mountains
(dmi/dmi)
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