Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) assesses the chances of this occurring
heatwave
or extreme heat waves that could ‘bake’ Indonesia are relatively small, despite the trend
climate crisis
continues to increase.
BMKG Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan explained that the characteristics of Indonesia’s atmosphere, which is dominated by vertical air movement and high humidity, are considered to be limiting factors for the occurrence of extreme heat waves such as those that often hit Europe, America or East Asia.
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“Currently we see that the opportunity is small, because air movement in Indonesia tends to be vertical, so the climate conditions in Indonesia tend to prevent heat waves from entering our region,” said Ardhasena in his presentation on the 2026 Climate Outlook, online, Jakarta, Tuesday (23/12).
He explained that extreme heat waves usually occur in areas with strong horizontal air circulation, which allows heat to be trapped for a long time.This condition is different from Indonesia, which has high cloud cover and active convection.
“So the swing from a fairly high temperature could be more than 45-46 degrees Celsius, currently we see the opportunity is small, because in Indonesia the air movement tends to be vertical,” explained BMKG.
However, BMKG emphasized that Indonesia continues to face the impacts of long-term warming, especially in the form of increases in average temperature and air humidity which can reduce comfort levels and impact public health.
“What we need to anticipate in the long term is a combination of a gradual increase in temperature trends that occurs continuously, and also an increase in humidity that occurs continuously and the cumulative effect of the two,” said BMKG.
BMKG predicts that Indonesia’s average annual temperature in 2026 will be in the range of 25-29 degrees Celsius, with lower temperatures in highland areas such as the Bukit Barisan Mountains, Latimojong and Jayawijaya.
However, a number of areas are predicted to experience average temperatures above 28 degrees Celsius, especially in southern Sumatra, eastern and central Kalimantan, the north coast of Java, and southern Papua.
BMKG reminded that even without
extreme heatwave
, the combination of high temperatures and high humidity can still trigger uncomfortable conditions that can be risky for vulnerable groups.
“During the season transition period, high humidity often creates conditions that people feel are very hot. This still needs to be anticipated from a health perspective,” stressed Ardhasena.
(wpj/dmi)
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