Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
United States Aeronautics and Space Administration (
NASA
) confirmed the return of the phenomenon
La Niña
in the Pacific Ocean since September and still occurs until December.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that La Nina could last for the next month or two.
The current La Nina is considered weak, so its impact on the weather is difficult to predict.
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NASA Earth Observatory said La Nina developed when the strengthening easterly trade winds triggered an increase
upwelling
or the rising of cold water from the ocean depths in the eastern tropical Pacific.
This process cools large swaths of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while pushing warm surface water westward toward Asia and Australia.
Based on data from the Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich satellite processed by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), a decrease in sea level in the central and eastern Pacific can be seen.This phenomenon occurs because colder water has a higher density and smaller volume than warm water.
Although La Nina usually brings changes to global rainfall patterns, its weak intensity this time makes weather predictions a challenge for experts.
“In general, La Niña years bring below-average rainfall to the Southwest region of the United States and above-average precipitation to the Northwest region. However, when the event is weak—both El Nino and La Nina—the associated weather patterns can be “very difficult to predict,” said Josh Willis, an oceanographer at NASA’s JPL, quoted on the page
NASA
.
He added that while there is potential for a drier winter in regions such as the American Southwest, that is not a guarantee in these mild La Niña conditions.
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center in its report as of December 11 also confirmed below average sea surface temperatures associated with La Nina conditions.
Current tropical atmospheric conditions still reflect the La Niña pattern, which is characterized by the presence of easterly wind anomalies at low levels in the central Pacific;continued increase in convection in Indonesia;to convection suppression near the international date line.
Although La Nina is predicted to persist for the next one to two months, NOAA states there is a 68 percent chance of transitioning to the ENSO-neutral phase in the period January to March 2026.
How will it impact Indonesia?
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) confirmed that the La Nina phenomenon will still persist in Indonesia until early next year.A number of areas are predicted to get wetter.
BMKG noted that the ENSO index in Basis III November was at -0.80 in the weak La Niña category and this condition is projected to continue until the beginning of the year before weakening towards March-May (MAM).
“Weak ENSO La Nina conditions indicate the potential for increased rainfall to very high (>150mm/dasarian) in parts of central and eastern Indonesia,” wrote BMKG on Instagram, Wednesday (3/12).
La Nina, which is characterized by cooling sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific, usually causes an increase in rainfall in Indonesia.
BMKG emphasized that the combination of climate factors can increase the chance of rain with high to very high intensity, especially in the central and eastern regions of Indonesia.
Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani explained that several areas still have the potential to experience heavy rain in the next few days.
“We urge the public to remain alert but not to panic.”Make sure the water channels function well, keep the environment clean, and monitor weather updates via InfoBMKG before doing activities,” said Faisal some time ago.
(lom/dmi)
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