Senyar Tropical Cyclone Weakens, Potential for Extreme Weather Still Exists

Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Senyar Tropical Cyclone
which triggered extreme rain in the last few days in Sumatra is starting to weaken.However, a number of regions still have to be aware of the potential
extreme weather
in the near future.
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), in its upload on Instagram, revealed that it has now entered the post-tropical cyclone phase of Tropical Cyclone Senyar.
ADVERTISEMENT
SCROLL TO CONTINUE WITH CONTENT
“Currently the system [Tropical Cyclone Senyar] is observed around the Malacca Strait area east of North Sumatra, with a maximum speed of 25 knots (46 km/hour) and a minimum air pressure of 1005 hPa,” said BMKG on Instagram, Friday (28/11).
BMKG predicts that in the next 24 hours, the intensity of the wind speed of the former Senyar Tropical Cyclone will weaken, along with its movement in the Malaysian region.However, the maximum wind speed of this tropical cyclone is still in the range of 20-25 knots, with the system moving east-northeast towards the South China Sea.
Meanwhile, in the next 48 to 72 hours, Tropical Cyclone Senyar’s maximum wind speed tends to be persistent, but there is the potential to increase slowly as it moves in the South China Sea.
“The potential for the former Senyar Tropical Cyclone to grow back into a tropical cyclone is in the low potential category,” explained BMKG.
Tropical Cyclone Senyar previously had a significant influence on increasing rainfall intensity in the Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra regions.BMKG noted that in the period 25-27 November several areas in these areas experienced rain with intensity reaching the extreme category, here are the details:
1. North Aceh, Aceh (310.8 mm/day)
2. Medan, North Sumatra (262.2 mm/day)
3. Central Tapanuli, North Sumatra (229.7 mm/day)
4. Padang Pariaman, West Sumatra (154 mm/day)
BMKG revealed that there were other factors besides Tropical Cyclone Senyar that caused extreme rain in the area.One of them is the Equatorial Rossby wave which was observed to be active in the same area and contributed to increasing the intensity of the rainfall.
Apart from that, Tropical Cyclone Koto, which is currently forming in the Philippine Sea, is also having an indirect impact in the form of rain with moderate to heavy intensity and high waves (1.25 – 4 meters) in the waters north of Kalimantan, Sulawesi and North Maluku.
“BMKG predicts that a combination of global, regional and local scale atmospheric phenomena will still influence the weather in Indonesia for the next week,” said BMKG in its official statement.
On a global scale, the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is currently recorded at −0.6, which indicates the potential for increased formation of rain clouds, especially in western Indonesia.
In addition, weak La Nina conditions, which are characterized by a Relative Nino 3.4 index of -0.42 and a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of +15.5, will increase the potential for rain in eastern Indonesia.
BMKG also revealed that the strengthening of the Asian Monsoon and the dominance of the westerly zonal wind component in Indonesian territory further increases the supply of water vapor from the Indian Ocean and triggers the formation of rain clouds in most parts of Indonesia.
Then, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to be in phase 6 (Western Pacific), but spatially this phenomenon is estimated to be active in parts of Kalimantan, Sulawesi, North Maluku and Papua.
The combination of MJO, Kelvin Waves, and Equatorial Rossby Waves in the same area and period is predicted to occur in the Malacca Strait region, the Indian Ocean west of Aceh, and the Indian Ocean south of the island of Java to East Nusa Tenggara.
“This phenomenon is predicted to support increased formation of rain clouds in these areas,” said BMKG.
Weather outlook for the week
BMKG predicts that the weather in Indonesia for the next week will generally be dominated by light rain to extreme rain.However, you need to be aware of an increase in rain with moderate intensity.
The following is a list of areas that have the potential to receive heavy to very heavy rain in the next week:
November 28-30
Aceh
North Sumatra
West Sumatra
Riau
Riau Islands
Bangka Belitung
Bengkulu
Lampung
West Java
East Java
Bali
East Nusa Tenggara
West Kalimantan
Central Kalimantan
East Kalimantan
North Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
North Sulawesi
Gorontalo
Central Sulawesi
West Sulawesi
South Sulawesi
Southeast Sulawesi
North Maluku
Maluku
Southwest Papua
West Papua
Papua Mountains
Papua
South Papua
November 29-December 3
Aceh
Northern Sutra
West Sumatra
Riau
Riau Islands
Jambi
South Sumatra
Bangka Belitung
Bengkulu
West Java
Central Java
IN Yogyakarta
East Java
Bali
West Nusa Tenggara
Central Kalimantan
East Kalimantan
North Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
Southeast Sulawesi
North Maluku
Southwest Papua
West Papua
Central Papua
Papua Mountains
Papua
South Papua
[Gambas:Instagram]
(dmi/dmi)