Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Phenomenon
La Niña
confirmed to be present in Indonesia until early next year.So, what impact will this have on weather dynamics in the country?
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said the ENSO index in November III was -0.80, indicating a weak La Nina.This condition is predicted to last until the beginning of the year and trigger the potential for high rainfall in a number of areas.
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“Weak ENSO La Nina conditions indicate the potential for increased rainfall to very high (>150mm/dasarian) in parts of central and eastern Indonesia,” wrote BMKG on Instagram, Wednesday (3/12).
BMKG estimates that the ENSO index will gradually weaken to -0.07 in the March-April-May (MAM) period.
ENSO is a climate cycle characterized by cooling (La Nina, below -0.5 degrees Celsius) and warming (El Nino, above 0.5 degrees Celsius) of sea surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
This is one of the strongest and most predictable weather patterns affecting the global climate.
According to BMKG, a number of regions in Indonesia have the potential to be affected by the presence of La Nina.The following is a list of areas potentially affected:
– West Nusa Tenggara)
– East Nusa Tenggara)
– Parts of Central Kalimantan
– Parts of East Kalimantan
– Parts of South Sulawesi
– Part of Maluku
– Parts of Central Papua
– A small part of South Papua
On the other hand, BMKG also revealed a Negative IOD index in the same period.In November III, the IOD index was at -0.36.Negative IOD is said to last until November and then switch back to the neutral phase.
Negative IOD conditions themselves indicate the flow of air masses from the Indian Ocean to western Indonesia, thus potentially triggering an increase in high rainfall.
Currently, most parts of Indonesia have entered the rainy season.Of the total 699 seasonal zone areas (ZOM), a total of 526 ZOM or around 75.3 percent have entered the rainy season.
Meanwhile, the remaining 60 ZOM or 8.5 percent are still in the dry season and 113 ZOM or 16.2 percent are one-season areas.
The following areas have the potential to experience an increase in rainfall due to Negative IOD:
– A small part of Aceh
– Parts of West Kalimantan
– Parts of the Bangka Belitung Islands
– Parts of southern Banten
– Parts of West Java
– Parts of Central Java
– A small part of East Java
– Most of Bali
Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani previously also revealed that currently the La Nina climate phenomenon is appearing in Indonesia ahead of the peak of the rainy season.According to Faisal, the weak La Nina phenomenon is currently underway and is predicted to last until March 2026.
However, the impact on increasing rainfall is not very significant during the peak of the rainy season.
“Weak La Nina will last until early 2026, but at the peak of the rainy season the impact on additional rainfall will not be very significant. However, high rainfall during that period still needs to be watched out for,” said Faisal, at a disaster preparedness call, Tuesday (4/11), reported on the official BMKG website.
(lom/dmi)
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