Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (
BMKG
) said several areas in the country still have the potential to be hit
extreme weather
next week.
“BMKG predicts a combination of global, regional and local scale atmospheric phenomena which will simultaneously influence the weather in Indonesia for the next week,” wrote BMKG in the Weekly Weather Prospects for the Period 21-27 November 2025.
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Over the last few days, BMKG recorded rain with heavy to extreme intensity occurring in a number of regions in Indonesia, such as Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Jabodetabek, East Java, D.I.Yogyakarta, East Java, Central Kalimantan and West Nusa Tenggara.
This weather condition is said to continue for the next week.This condition is caused by a combination of global, regional and local atmospheric dynamics.
On a global scale, BMKG said the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) is currently recorded at −0.99, contributing to increased rain cloud formation on the west coast of Sumatra.In addition, weak La-Nina conditions, which are characterized by a Relative Nino 3.4 index of -0.95 and a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) of +15.9, will increase the potential for rain in eastern Indonesia.
Meanwhile, the strengthening of the Asian Monsoon, which is characterized by significant WNPMI values and the dominance of the westerly zonal wind component in Indonesia, further increases the supply of water vapor from the Indian Ocean and triggers the formation of rain clouds in most parts of Indonesia.
Currently the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is predicted to be in phase 6 (Western Pacific), but spatially this phenomenon is estimated to be active in parts of Sumatra and northern Kalimantan.
Apart from that, a combination of MJO, Kelvin Waves and Equatorial Rossby Waves in the same region and period is predicted to occur in the Indian Ocean west of Aceh, Aceh, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, southern Maluku.This contributes to increased growth of rain clouds in these areas.
Furthermore, Tropical Cyclone FINA is currently predicted to be in the Arafura Sea south of Tanimbar Island, with intensity expected to increase and move south-southwest.
As Tropical Cyclone FINA moves away from Indonesian territory and attracts surrounding air masses, the intensity of rain will decrease, especially in the East Nusa Tenggara region.
However, this tropical cyclone has the potential to impact high waves of up to 4 meters around the western and central Arafuru Sea in the next 24 hours.
The following is a list of areas that have the potential to receive heavy to very heavy rain in the next week:
November 21-23
– Aceh
– North Sumatra
– West Sumatra
– Jambi
– Bangka Belitung
– West Java
– Central Java
– IN Yogyakarta
– East Java
– Bali
– West Nusa Tenggara
– South Kalimantan
– Southwest Papua
– Papua Mountains
– South Papua
November 24-27
– Aceh
– West Sumatra
– Bengkulu
– Central Java
– East Java
– West Kalimantan
– Papua Mountains
(lom/dmi)
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