Jakarta, domclub Indonesia
—
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (
BMKG
) said tropical cyclones in the southern region of Indonesia began to become active in November, which had the potential to trigger very heavy rain.
BMKG appealed to the public to be alert to the potential for the formation of a low pressure system around the Indian Ocean which could trigger very heavy rain and strong winds, as well as high waves, especially on the coasts of Java, Bali and Nusa Tenggara due to tropical cyclones.
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In the next week, BMKG estimates that most parts of Indonesia will experience cloudy to rainy weather with light to moderate intensity, accompanied by the potential for rain to increase to moderate to very heavy in a number of areas.
Based on BMKG’s early warning analysis, moderate to heavy intensity rain that needs to be watched out for has the potential to occur in various regions, including Aceh, southern Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Bengkulu, Lampung, Java Island, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua.
Meanwhile, heavy to very heavy rain is predicted to occur in Banten, DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, DI Yogyakarta, and Papua, and in the next few days it has the potential to spread to North Maluku and parts of Sulawesi.
As an anticipatory and mitigation measure, BMKG, in collaboration with BNPB and related authorities, is carrying out Weather Modification Operations (OMC) for areas around DKI Jakarta, West Java, Banten, Central Java and Yogyakarta.This is done to reduce the intensity of extreme rain in disaster-prone areas.
In Central Java, OMC has been carried out since October 25 and continues until early November, with implementation from the Semarang and Solo Command Posts.This OMC has carried out 41 sortie flights using two Cessna Caravan aircraft, with effective results in reducing and redistributing rainfall in the target area.
Meanwhile, for the western Java region, OMC has been carried out since October 23 and is still continuing with implementation from the Jakarta Command Post.A total of 29 flight sorties have been carried out and are claimed to show results in significantly reducing rainfall in the target area.
Atmospheric dynamics
BMKG Deputy for Meteorology, Guswanto, explained that BMKG monitoring of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean shows that in the last two months there has been a cooling in the Pacific Ocean and it has crossed the La Nina threshold.
BMKG data shows that in September the recorded sea surface temperature anomaly in the Central and East Pacific was -0.54 and in October it was -0.61.
Apart from that, atmospheric conditions also indicate a strengthening of easterly winds.These two indications show the initial development of La Nina and the atmospheric response confirms that a weak La Nina has occurred.
“However, a weak La Nina is predicted not to have a significant impact on rainfall in most parts of Indonesia, with rainfall conditions in November-December 2025 and January-February 2026 predicted to remain in the normal category,” said Guswanto in his statement, Saturday (1/11).
Furthermore, Guswanto explained that the increase in rain potential is also supported by several atmospheric phenomena that are active simultaneously, starting from Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity, Rossby and Kelvin waves, to warm sea surface temperature anomalies in Indonesian waters.
This combination of factors is said to significantly increase the supply of water vapor and the formation of rain clouds.
The combination of active atmospheric conditions and the emergence of tropical cyclones from the south creates the potential threat of hydrometeorological disasters such as strong winds and high waves.
Considering that in recent years Indonesia has often experienced the damaging impacts of tropical cyclones, BMKG emphasizes the importance of preparedness.
(loa/end)
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